ATH vs FCB
Athletic Club (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATH win 16.3% fair 6.15
Draw 17.0% fair 5.89
FCB win 66.8% fair 1.50
Expected Goals
ATH
1.08
—
2.62
FCB
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.5% | fair 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.5% | fair 3.51 |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-2 FCB | 9.2% | |
| ATH 0-2 FCB | 8.5% | |
| ATH 1-3 FCB | 8.0% | |
| ATH 0-3 FCB | 7.4% | |
| ATH 1-1 FCB | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 4.6 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).