RMA vs VAL
Real Madrid (home) vs Valencia · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RMA win 72.9% fair 1.37
Draw 16.0% fair 6.26
VAL win 11.2% fair 8.95
Expected Goals
RMA
2.55
—
0.79
VAL
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.2% | fair 2.84 |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 2-0 VAL | 11.6% | |
| RMA 3-0 VAL | 9.8% | |
| RMA 2-1 VAL | 9.1% | |
| RMA 1-0 VAL | 9.1% | |
| RMA 3-1 VAL | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: VAL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).