Gameweek 27
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-07 00:00 | ALA vs ATH | 41.4% | 26.3% | 32.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-07 00:00 | ATM vs CEL | 52.8% | 24.7% | 22.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-07 00:00 | DEP vs GET | 40.5% | 28.7% | 30.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-07 00:00 | ELC vs MLG | 57.0% | 22.0% | 20.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-07 00:00 | ESP vs RAC | 51.6% | 22.9% | 25.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-07 00:00 | FCB vs BET | 71.9% | 15.0% | 13.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-07 00:00 | RAY vs OSA | 45.1% | 25.4% | 29.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-07 00:00 | SEV vs RSO | 43.1% | 22.3% | 34.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-07 00:00 | VAL vs LEV | 41.2% | 24.8% | 34.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-07 00:00 | VIL vs RMA | 30.6% | 23.0% | 46.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.