ELC vs MLG
Elche (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELC win 57.0% fair 1.75
Draw 22.0% fair 4.54
MLG win 20.9% fair 4.78
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 59.0% / 21.7% / 19.3%.
Expected Goals
ELC
1.95
—
1.02
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.9% | fair 2.33 |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-1 MLG | 10.2% | |
| ELC 1-0 MLG | 10.0% | |
| ELC 2-1 MLG | 9.9% | |
| ELC 2-0 MLG | 9.7% | |
| ELC 3-1 MLG | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).