VIL vs RMA
Villarreal (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VIL win 30.6% fair 3.27
Draw 23.0% fair 4.36
RMA win 46.5% fair 2.15
Expected Goals
VIL
1.38
—
1.82
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.9% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.1% | fair 2.63 |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 1-1 RMA | 10.2% | |
| VIL 1-2 RMA | 9.3% | |
| VIL 0-1 RMA | 7.4% | |
| VIL 2-1 RMA | 7.1% | |
| VIL 0-2 RMA | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).