RAY vs OSA
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAY win 45.1% fair 2.22
Draw 25.4% fair 3.93
OSA win 29.4% fair 3.40
Expected Goals
RAY
1.50
—
1.16
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 OSA | 12.2% | |
| RAY 1-0 OSA | 10.5% | |
| RAY 2-1 OSA | 9.1% | |
| RAY 0-1 OSA | 8.1% | |
| RAY 2-0 OSA | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).