SEV vs RSO
Sevilla (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SEV win 43.1% fair 2.32
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
RSO win 34.6% fair 2.89
Expected Goals
SEV
1.85
—
1.67
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.2% | fair 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.8% | fair 3.15 |
| Both teams to score | 68.4% | fair 1.46 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 1-1 RSO | 9.2% | |
| SEV 2-1 RSO | 8.5% | |
| SEV 1-2 RSO | 7.6% | |
| SEV 2-2 RSO | 7.1% | |
| SEV 1-0 RSO | 5.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).