ATM vs CEL
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATM win 52.8% fair 1.90
Draw 24.7% fair 4.06
CEL win 22.6% fair 4.43
Expected Goals
ATM
1.63
—
0.94
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | fair 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.5% | fair 1.90 |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | fair 2.04 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 1-0 CEL | 12.4% | |
| ATM 1-1 CEL | 11.7% | |
| ATM 2-0 CEL | 10.1% | |
| ATM 2-1 CEL | 9.6% | |
| ATM 0-0 CEL | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).