Gameweek 28
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-14 00:00 | ALA vs SEV | 42.7% | 24.9% | 32.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-14 00:00 | ATH vs VAL | 48.0% | 25.5% | 26.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-14 00:00 | BET vs LEV | 56.9% | 21.3% | 21.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-14 00:00 | ELC vs VIL | 34.1% | 23.7% | 42.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-14 00:00 | FCB vs DEP | 81.7% | 10.4% | 7.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-14 00:00 | GET vs RSO | 35.8% | 26.1% | 38.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-14 00:00 | MLG vs RAY | 33.7% | 25.6% | 40.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-14 00:00 | OSA vs CEL | 33.4% | 26.9% | 39.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-14 00:00 | RAC vs ATM | 21.6% | 20.2% | 58.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-14 00:00 | RMA vs ESP | 70.9% | 16.9% | 12.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.