FCB vs DEP
Barcelona (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCB win 81.7% fair 1.22
Draw 10.4% fair 9.57
DEP win 7.8% fair 12.76
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 86.7% / 8.6% / 4.8%.
Expected Goals
FCB
3.59
—
0.83
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 81.7% | fair 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 18.3% | fair 5.46 |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 3-0 DEP | 9.3% | |
| FCB 4-0 DEP | 8.3% | |
| FCB 2-0 DEP | 7.8% | |
| FCB 3-1 DEP | 7.7% | |
| FCB 4-1 DEP | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 12.6 | 10.5 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).