ELC vs VIL
Elche (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELC win 34.1% fair 2.94
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
VIL win 42.2% fair 2.37
Expected Goals
ELC
1.42
—
1.67
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.2% | fair 2.49 |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-1 VIL | 10.8% | |
| ELC 1-2 VIL | 9.0% | |
| ELC 2-1 VIL | 7.7% | |
| ELC 0-1 VIL | 7.6% | |
| ELC 1-0 VIL | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).