MLG vs RAY
Málaga (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MLG win 33.7% fair 2.97
Draw 25.6% fair 3.91
RAY win 40.7% fair 2.46
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.6% / 25.8% / 42.6%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.21
—
1.45
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-1 RAY | 12.3% | |
| MLG 0-1 RAY | 10.1% | |
| MLG 1-2 RAY | 8.9% | |
| MLG 1-0 RAY | 8.5% | |
| MLG 2-1 RAY | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).