ALA vs SEV
Alavés (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ALA win 42.7% fair 2.34
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
SEV win 32.4% fair 3.09
Expected Goals
ALA
1.52
—
1.31
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.3% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 SEV | 11.8% | |
| ALA 1-0 SEV | 9.0% | |
| ALA 2-1 SEV | 8.9% | |
| ALA 0-1 SEV | 7.7% | |
| ALA 1-2 SEV | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).