OSA vs CEL
Osasuna (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OSA win 33.4% fair 2.99
Draw 26.9% fair 3.71
CEL win 39.7% fair 2.52
Expected Goals
OSA
1.13
—
1.31
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 CEL | 12.9% | |
| OSA 0-1 CEL | 11.4% | |
| OSA 1-0 CEL | 9.8% | |
| OSA 0-0 CEL | 8.7% | |
| OSA 1-2 CEL | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).