ATH vs VAL
Athletic Club (home) vs Valencia · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATH win 48.0% fair 2.09
Draw 25.5% fair 3.93
VAL win 26.6% fair 3.76
Expected Goals
ATH
1.52
—
1.05
VAL
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | fair 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 VAL | 12.2% | |
| ATH 1-0 VAL | 11.6% | |
| ATH 2-1 VAL | 9.3% | |
| ATH 2-0 VAL | 8.8% | |
| ATH 0-1 VAL | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: VAL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).