RAC vs ATM
Racing Santander (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAC win 21.6% fair 4.63
Draw 20.2% fair 4.96
ATM win 58.2% fair 1.72
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 17.9% / 19.6% / 62.6%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.10
—
2.22
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.5% | fair 2.81 |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-2 ATM | 9.8% | |
| RAC 0-2 ATM | 8.9% | |
| RAC 1-1 ATM | 8.8% | |
| RAC 0-1 ATM | 8.0% | |
| RAC 1-3 ATM | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).