RMA vs ESP
Real Madrid (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RMA win 70.9% fair 1.41
Draw 16.9% fair 5.92
ESP win 12.2% fair 8.21
Expected Goals
RMA
2.45
—
0.81
ESP
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.7% | fair 2.72 |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 2-0 ESP | 11.5% | |
| RMA 3-0 ESP | 9.4% | |
| RMA 1-0 ESP | 9.4% | |
| RMA 2-1 ESP | 9.3% | |
| RMA 3-1 ESP | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).