Gameweek 29
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-21 00:00 | ATM vs GET | 59.9% | 23.7% | 16.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-21 00:00 | CEL vs RMA | 25.6% | 24.1% | 50.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-21 00:00 | ESP vs ATH | 39.3% | 26.5% | 34.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-21 00:00 | LEV vs OSA | 46.3% | 24.1% | 29.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-21 00:00 | RAC vs BET | 26.6% | 21.6% | 51.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-21 00:00 | RAY vs FCB | 14.2% | 15.4% | 70.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-21 00:00 | RSO vs ALA | 48.2% | 22.8% | 29.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-21 00:00 | SEV vs ELC | 43.9% | 23.8% | 32.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-21 00:00 | VAL vs DEP | 43.7% | 25.7% | 30.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-21 00:00 | VIL vs MLG | 67.1% | 18.2% | 14.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.