Gameweek 30
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-04 00:00 | ATH vs RAC | 55.1% | 22.0% | 22.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-04 00:00 | BET vs CEL | 46.7% | 25.5% | 27.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-04 00:00 | DEP vs VIL | 28.9% | 23.6% | 47.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-04 00:00 | ELC vs ALA | 44.8% | 24.8% | 30.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-04 00:00 | FCB vs SEV | 80.3% | 11.2% | 8.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-04 00:00 | GET vs ESP | 38.6% | 29.5% | 31.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-04 00:00 | LEV vs RAY | 44.1% | 24.3% | 31.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-04 00:00 | MLG vs OSA | 35.6% | 25.8% | 38.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-04 00:00 | RMA vs ATM | 53.1% | 22.8% | 24.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-04 00:00 | RSO vs VAL | 52.7% | 22.1% | 25.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.