MLG vs OSA
Málaga (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MLG win 35.6% fair 2.81
Draw 25.8% fair 3.88
OSA win 38.7% fair 2.58
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 33.7% / 26.1% / 40.2%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.25
—
1.39
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-1 OSA | 12.4% | |
| MLG 0-1 OSA | 9.9% | |
| MLG 1-0 OSA | 8.9% | |
| MLG 1-2 OSA | 8.6% | |
| MLG 2-1 OSA | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).