RSO vs VAL
Real Sociedad (home) vs Valencia · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RSO win 52.7% fair 1.90
Draw 22.1% fair 4.53
VAL win 25.2% fair 3.97
Expected Goals
RSO
1.97
—
1.28
VAL
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.0% | fair 2.71 |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 1-1 VAL | 9.8% | |
| RSO 2-1 VAL | 9.6% | |
| RSO 1-0 VAL | 7.6% | |
| RSO 2-0 VAL | 7.5% | |
| RSO 3-1 VAL | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: VAL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).