DEP vs VIL
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
DEP win 28.9% fair 3.46
Draw 23.6% fair 4.24
VIL win 47.5% fair 2.11
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 26.2% / 23.5% / 50.2%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.20
—
1.75
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.3% | fair 2.31 |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 VIL | 11.0% | |
| DEP 1-2 VIL | 9.6% | |
| DEP 0-1 VIL | 9.1% | |
| DEP 0-2 VIL | 8.0% | |
| DEP 2-1 VIL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).