FCB vs SEV
Barcelona (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCB win 80.3% fair 1.25
Draw 11.2% fair 8.95
SEV win 8.5% fair 11.70
Expected Goals
FCB
3.50
—
0.99
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 82.6% | fair 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 17.4% | fair 5.73 |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 3-0 SEV | 8.0% | |
| FCB 3-1 SEV | 7.9% | |
| FCB 4-0 SEV | 7.0% | |
| FCB 4-1 SEV | 7.0% | |
| FCB 2-0 SEV | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 10.2 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).