ELC vs ALA
Elche (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELC win 44.8% fair 2.23
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
ALA win 30.3% fair 3.30
Expected Goals
ELC
1.56
—
1.24
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.0% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-1 ALA | 11.8% | |
| ELC 1-0 ALA | 9.5% | |
| ELC 2-1 ALA | 9.2% | |
| ELC 0-1 ALA | 7.6% | |
| ELC 2-0 ALA | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).