RMA vs ATM
Real Madrid (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RMA win 53.1% fair 1.88
Draw 22.8% fair 4.39
ATM win 24.2% fair 4.13
Expected Goals
RMA
1.86
—
1.16
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 1-1 ATM | 10.5% | |
| RMA 2-1 ATM | 9.8% | |
| RMA 1-0 ATM | 9.0% | |
| RMA 2-0 ATM | 8.4% | |
| RMA 1-2 ATM | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).