LEV vs RAY
Levante (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEV win 44.1% fair 2.27
Draw 24.3% fair 4.12
RAY win 31.6% fair 3.16
Expected Goals
LEV
1.61
—
1.33
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.7% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEV 1-1 RAY | 11.3% | |
| LEV 2-1 RAY | 9.1% | |
| LEV 1-0 RAY | 8.5% | |
| LEV 1-2 RAY | 7.6% | |
| LEV 0-1 RAY | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEV goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).