Gameweek 31
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-11 00:00 | ALA vs BET | 33.8% | 25.2% | 41.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-11 00:00 | ATM vs LEV | 63.2% | 19.6% | 17.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-11 00:00 | CEL vs ELC | 47.3% | 25.3% | 27.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-11 00:00 | ESP vs MLG | 52.5% | 24.2% | 23.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-11 00:00 | OSA vs RMA | 18.6% | 20.0% | 61.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-11 00:00 | RAC vs FCB | 11.2% | 11.1% | 77.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-11 00:00 | RAY vs RSO | 39.7% | 23.3% | 37.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-11 00:00 | SEV vs DEP | 49.7% | 23.7% | 26.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-11 00:00 | VAL vs GET | 40.6% | 29.3% | 30.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-11 00:00 | VIL vs ATH | 54.1% | 22.9% | 23.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.