SEV vs DEP
Sevilla (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SEV win 49.7% fair 2.01
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
DEP win 26.7% fair 3.75
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.3% / 23.6% / 26.1%.
Expected Goals
SEV
1.74
—
1.19
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.0% | fair 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 1-1 DEP | 11.1% | |
| SEV 2-1 DEP | 9.6% | |
| SEV 1-0 DEP | 9.3% | |
| SEV 2-0 DEP | 8.1% | |
| SEV 1-2 DEP | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).