CEL vs ELC
Celta Vigo (home) vs Elche · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CEL win 47.3% fair 2.11
Draw 25.3% fair 3.96
ELC win 27.4% fair 3.65
Expected Goals
CEL
1.54
—
1.10
ELC
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 ELC | 12.1% | |
| CEL 1-0 ELC | 11.0% | |
| CEL 2-1 ELC | 9.3% | |
| CEL 2-0 ELC | 8.5% | |
| CEL 0-1 ELC | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).