ALA vs BET
Alavés (home) vs Real Betis · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ALA win 33.8% fair 2.96
Draw 25.2% fair 3.97
BET win 41.0% fair 2.44
Expected Goals
ALA
1.27
—
1.49
BET
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 BET | 12.0% | |
| ALA 0-1 BET | 9.4% | |
| ALA 1-2 BET | 8.9% | |
| ALA 1-0 BET | 8.0% | |
| ALA 2-1 BET | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: BET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).