ESP vs MLG
Espanyol (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ESP win 52.5% fair 1.90
Draw 24.2% fair 4.14
MLG win 23.3% fair 4.28
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 53.6% / 24.2% / 22.2%.
Expected Goals
ESP
1.68
—
0.99
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | fair 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.0% | fair 2.00 |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-0 MLG | 11.6% | |
| ESP 1-1 MLG | 11.5% | |
| ESP 2-0 MLG | 9.8% | |
| ESP 2-1 MLG | 9.7% | |
| ESP 0-0 MLG | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).