VIL vs ATH
Villarreal (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VIL win 54.1% fair 1.85
Draw 22.9% fair 4.37
ATH win 23.0% fair 4.34
Expected Goals
VIL
1.84
—
1.09
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.9% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 1-1 ATH | 10.7% | |
| VIL 2-1 ATH | 9.9% | |
| VIL 1-0 ATH | 9.8% | |
| VIL 2-0 ATH | 9.1% | |
| VIL 3-1 ATH | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).