RAC vs FCB
Racing Santander (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAC win 11.2% fair 8.92
Draw 11.1% fair 9.01
FCB win 77.7% fair 1.29
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 6.4% / 9.3% / 84.3%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.08
—
3.73
FCB
| Over 2.5 goals | 85.8% | fair 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 14.2% | fair 7.03 |
| Both teams to score | 64.3% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-3 FCB | 7.6% | |
| RAC 1-4 FCB | 7.1% | |
| RAC 0-3 FCB | 7.1% | |
| RAC 0-4 FCB | 6.6% | |
| RAC 1-2 FCB | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 10.8 |
| 1 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 11.7 |
| 2 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 6.3 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).