Gameweek 32
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-18 00:00 | ALA vs RAY | 44.5% | 25.7% | 29.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-18 00:00 | ATM vs SEV | 60.3% | 20.8% | 18.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-18 00:00 | BET vs ATH | 52.0% | 23.7% | 24.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-18 00:00 | DEP vs CEL | 33.1% | 26.6% | 40.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-18 00:00 | ELC vs OSA | 48.9% | 24.1% | 27.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-18 00:00 | FCB vs ESP | 80.7% | 11.3% | 8.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-18 00:00 | GET vs RMA | 18.8% | 23.3% | 57.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-18 00:00 | LEV vs VIL | 31.4% | 22.9% | 45.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-18 00:00 | MLG vs VAL | 35.7% | 26.0% | 38.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-18 00:00 | RSO vs RAC | 60.2% | 18.8% | 21.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.