GET vs RMA
Getafe (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
GET win 18.8% fair 5.32
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
RMA win 57.9% fair 1.73
Expected Goals
GET
0.77
—
1.74
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | fair 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
| Both teams to score | 44.4% | fair 2.25 |
Most Likely Scores
| GET 0-1 RMA | 14.1% | |
| GET 0-2 RMA | 12.3% | |
| GET 1-1 RMA | 10.9% | |
| GET 1-2 RMA | 9.5% | |
| GET 0-0 RMA | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 14.1 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GET goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).