RSO vs RAC
Real Sociedad (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RSO win 60.2% fair 1.66
Draw 18.8% fair 5.32
RAC win 21.0% fair 4.77
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 62.6% / 17.9% / 19.5%.
Expected Goals
RSO
2.56
—
1.39
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.5% | fair 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24.5% | fair 4.07 |
| Both teams to score | 69.4% | fair 1.44 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 2-1 RAC | 8.8% | |
| RSO 3-1 RAC | 7.5% | |
| RSO 1-1 RAC | 6.9% | |
| RSO 2-0 RAC | 6.3% | |
| RSO 2-2 RAC | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).