Gameweek 33
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-21 00:00 | ATH vs DEP | 48.9% | 24.9% | 26.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-21 00:00 | CEL vs FCB | 19.4% | 19.4% | 61.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-21 00:00 | ESP vs RSO | 39.2% | 23.6% | 37.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-21 00:00 | GET vs BET | 29.3% | 27.7% | 43.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-21 00:00 | OSA vs ALA | 39.1% | 26.1% | 34.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-21 00:00 | RAC vs MLG | 47.5% | 23.3% | 29.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-21 00:00 | RMA vs ELC | 69.5% | 17.0% | 13.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-21 00:00 | SEV vs LEV | 47.4% | 23.0% | 29.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-21 00:00 | VAL vs RAY | 40.4% | 26.1% | 33.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-21 00:00 | VIL vs ATM | 38.7% | 24.5% | 36.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.