EDGERATING
Methodology

GET vs BET

Getafe (home) vs Real Betis · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window

Match Outcome

GET win 29.3% fair 3.41
Draw 27.7% fair 3.61
BET win 43.0% fair 2.33

Expected Goals

GET 0.96 — 1.30 BET
Over 2.5 goals39.5%fair 2.53
Under 2.5 goals60.5%fair 1.65
Both teams to score45.0%fair 2.22

Most Likely Scores

GET 0-1 BET13.5%
GET 1-1 BET13.0%
GET 0-0 BET10.4%
GET 1-0 BET10.0%
GET 0-2 BET8.8%

Scoreline Matrix

012345+
0 10.4 13.5 8.8 3.8 1.2 0.4
1 10.0 13.0 8.5 3.7 1.2 0.4
2 4.8 6.3 4.1 1.8 0.6 0.2
3 1.5 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
5+ 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Rows: GET goals · Columns: BET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).

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