ATH vs DEP
Athletic Club (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATH win 48.9% fair 2.05
Draw 24.9% fair 4.01
DEP win 26.2% fair 3.82
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.4% / 25.1% / 25.6%.
Expected Goals
ATH
1.58
—
1.07
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 DEP | 11.9% | |
| ATH 1-0 DEP | 11.2% | |
| ATH 2-1 DEP | 9.4% | |
| ATH 2-0 DEP | 8.9% | |
| ATH 0-1 DEP | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).