VIL vs ATM
Villarreal (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VIL win 38.7% fair 2.58
Draw 24.5% fair 4.08
ATM win 36.8% fair 2.72
Expected Goals
VIL
1.48
—
1.46
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.7% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 1-1 ATM | 11.4% | |
| VIL 2-1 ATM | 8.4% | |
| VIL 1-2 ATM | 8.4% | |
| VIL 1-0 ATM | 7.8% | |
| VIL 0-1 ATM | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).