RAC vs MLG
Racing Santander (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 68% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAC win 47.5% fair 2.10
Draw 23.3% fair 4.28
MLG win 29.1% fair 3.43
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.9% / 23.2% / 28.9%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.78
—
1.34
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.8% | fair 2.51 |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-1 MLG | 10.6% | |
| RAC 2-1 MLG | 9.4% | |
| RAC 1-0 MLG | 7.9% | |
| RAC 1-2 MLG | 7.0% | |
| RAC 2-0 MLG | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).