RMA vs ELC
Real Madrid (home) vs Elche · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RMA win 69.5% fair 1.44
Draw 17.0% fair 5.89
ELC win 13.6% fair 7.37
Expected Goals
RMA
2.53
—
0.94
ELC
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.4% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.6% | fair 3.07 |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 2-0 ELC | 9.9% | |
| RMA 2-1 ELC | 9.4% | |
| RMA 3-0 ELC | 8.4% | |
| RMA 3-1 ELC | 7.9% | |
| RMA 1-0 ELC | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.4 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).