OSA vs ALA
Osasuna (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OSA win 39.1% fair 2.55
Draw 26.1% fair 3.83
ALA win 34.7% fair 2.88
Expected Goals
OSA
1.33
—
1.27
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 ALA | 12.5% | |
| OSA 1-0 ALA | 9.9% | |
| OSA 0-1 ALA | 9.4% | |
| OSA 2-1 ALA | 8.4% | |
| OSA 1-2 ALA | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).