ESP vs RSO
Espanyol (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ESP win 39.2% fair 2.55
Draw 23.6% fair 4.23
RSO win 37.2% fair 2.69
Expected Goals
ESP
1.58
—
1.58
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.8% | fair 2.58 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 RSO | 10.6% | |
| ESP 2-1 RSO | 8.4% | |
| ESP 1-2 RSO | 8.3% | |
| ESP 1-0 RSO | 6.7% | |
| ESP 0-1 RSO | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).