Gameweek 34
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-02 00:00 | ATM vs ALA | 59.6% | 21.9% | 18.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-02 00:00 | BET vs VAL | 57.7% | 22.2% | 20.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-02 00:00 | CEL vs SEV | 47.9% | 25.0% | 27.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-02 00:00 | DEP vs RAC | 48.9% | 23.1% | 28.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-02 00:00 | ELC vs ESP | 46.8% | 24.7% | 28.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-02 00:00 | FCB vs OSA | 82.4% | 10.3% | 7.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-02 00:00 | LEV vs RMA | 19.8% | 19.4% | 60.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-02 00:00 | MLG vs GET | 34.6% | 28.9% | 36.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-02 00:00 | RAY vs VIL | 31.0% | 24.2% | 44.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-02 00:00 | RSO vs ATH | 46.7% | 23.1% | 30.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.