Gameweek 35
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-09 00:00 | ALA vs LEV | 45.5% | 24.3% | 30.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-09 00:00 | ATH vs MLG | 55.8% | 23.2% | 21.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-09 00:00 | BET vs ESP | 55.5% | 22.9% | 21.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-09 00:00 | GET vs ELC | 36.5% | 28.2% | 35.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-09 00:00 | OSA vs RSO | 37.4% | 23.3% | 39.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-09 00:00 | RAC vs SEV | 34.8% | 22.8% | 42.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-09 00:00 | RAY vs DEP | 46.2% | 25.2% | 28.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-09 00:00 | RMA vs FCB | 37.1% | 21.5% | 41.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-09 00:00 | VAL vs ATM | 24.6% | 23.9% | 51.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-09 00:00 | VIL vs CEL | 48.7% | 24.7% | 26.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.