RMA vs FCB
Real Madrid (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 88% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RMA win 37.1% fair 2.70
Draw 21.5% fair 4.65
FCB win 41.4% fair 2.42
Expected Goals
RMA
1.81
—
1.96
FCB
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.6% | fair 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.4% | fair 3.65 |
| Both teams to score | 71.9% | fair 1.39 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 1-1 FCB | 8.2% | |
| RMA 1-2 FCB | 8.0% | |
| RMA 2-1 FCB | 7.4% | |
| RMA 2-2 FCB | 7.3% | |
| RMA 1-3 FCB | 5.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).