RAC vs SEV
Racing Santander (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAC win 34.8% fair 2.87
Draw 22.8% fair 4.38
SEV win 42.3% fair 2.36
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 33.0% / 22.6% / 44.4%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.53
—
1.81
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.9% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.1% | fair 2.85 |
| Both teams to score | 65.6% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-1 SEV | 9.8% | |
| RAC 1-2 SEV | 8.9% | |
| RAC 2-1 SEV | 7.5% | |
| RAC 2-2 SEV | 6.8% | |
| RAC 0-1 SEV | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).