Gameweek 36
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-16 00:00 | ATM vs RAY | 61.6% | 21.1% | 17.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-16 00:00 | DEP vs ALA | 38.5% | 26.0% | 35.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-16 00:00 | ELC vs ATH | 43.4% | 25.1% | 31.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-16 00:00 | ESP vs VAL | 44.6% | 26.1% | 29.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-16 00:00 | LEV vs GET | 44.3% | 27.1% | 28.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-16 00:00 | MLG vs CEL | 27.5% | 25.6% | 46.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-16 00:00 | OSA vs BET | 30.4% | 24.6% | 45.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-16 00:00 | RMA vs RAC | 78.8% | 12.0% | 9.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-16 00:00 | RSO vs FCB | 16.2% | 14.9% | 68.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-16 00:00 | SEV vs VIL | 33.7% | 23.5% | 42.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.