Gameweek 37
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-23 00:00 | ALA vs RMA | 21.2% | 21.6% | 57.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-23 00:00 | ATM vs ATH | 58.1% | 22.4% | 19.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-23 00:00 | CEL vs RSO | 47.1% | 23.7% | 29.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-23 00:00 | DEP vs ESP | 40.3% | 26.1% | 33.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-23 00:00 | FCB vs MLG | 85.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-23 00:00 | RAC vs LEV | 37.4% | 22.8% | 39.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-23 00:00 | RAY vs BET | 32.3% | 24.8% | 42.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-23 00:00 | SEV vs GET | 46.4% | 27.0% | 26.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-23 00:00 | VAL vs ELC | 38.0% | 25.3% | 36.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-23 00:00 | VIL vs OSA | 59.8% | 21.1% | 19.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.